Midwest Safety News

Outlook

State-level economic + safety + outcomes health: jobs growth, unemployment, an Economic Activity Index that bundles jobs, hours, wages and sales into a single number (Philadelphia Fed), how fast homes are turning over, where people are moving, how the state's homicide rate compares to the U.S. and how 4th graders are reading on the NAEP scale. Nine bars per state show (left to right) the 12-month change in economic activity, jobs YoY, unemployment vs. the U.S. average, how much longer homes are sitting on the market, net domestic migration as a share of population, year-to-date change in gas prices, the consumer-price inflation rate for the state's census region, the homicide rate vs. the U.S. average and the NAEP Grade 4 reading score vs. the U.S. average. Green is the good direction for each metric and red is the bad direction. Hover for exact numbers, and click to open the state's dashboard.

Updated June 8, 2026Source: Philadelphia Fed, BLS and Census via FRED

Grading
Rank each state against the others. Top performers green, worst red.
Focus
Color by the average of every metric (current state + trend together).
Economic activity 12-moJobs YoYUnemployment vs U.S.Homes sitting longer YoYNet domestic migrationGas YTDConsumer prices YoYMurders vs U.S.Reading vs U.S.good directionbad direction(direction varies by metric — e.g., higher unemployment than U.S. is bad)

Across our coverage

Where is economic activity growing fastest?

  1. 1.Nevada+3.6%
  2. 2.Ohio+3.4%
  3. 3.Idaho+3.2%
  4. 4.California+3.1%
  5. 5.North Dakota+2.9%
  6. 6.Colorado+2.9%
  7. 7.North Carolina+2.8%
  8. 8.Georgia+2.7%
  9. 9.Kentucky+2.7%
  10. 10.New Hampshire+2.6%

Economic Activity Index, 12-month change · Largest gain in the Philadelphia Fed state Economic Activity Index (jobs, hours, wages, sales) over the past 12 months.

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Where is economic activity slowing the most?

  1. 1.West Virginia-2.9%
  2. 2.Delaware-1.0%
  3. 3.Montana-1.0%
  4. 4.Connecticut-0.7%
  5. 5.Oklahoma+0.1%
  6. 6.Maryland+0.4%
  7. 7.Minnesota+0.5%
  8. 8.New York+0.7%
  9. 9.Alaska+0.7%
  10. 10.Wyoming+0.7%

Economic Activity Index, 12-month change · Smallest gain or largest decline in the Philadelphia Fed Economic Activity Index over the past 12 months.

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Where are jobs growing fastest?

  1. 1.Nevada+1.9%
  2. 2.North Carolina+0.9%
  3. 3.South Carolina+0.9%
  4. 4.Utah+0.7%
  5. 5.Alabama+0.6%
  6. 6.Texas+0.6%
  7. 7.California+0.6%
  8. 8.Idaho+0.5%
  9. 9.Louisiana+0.5%
  10. 10.New Mexico+0.5%

Nonfarm payroll employment, YoY · Largest year-over-year rise in total nonfarm payroll employment.

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Where are jobs shrinking the most?

  1. 1.District of Columbia-5.1%
  2. 2.Oregon-1.2%
  3. 3.Maryland-1.2%
  4. 4.Iowa-0.9%
  5. 5.Virginia-0.9%
  6. 6.Rhode Island-0.5%
  7. 7.Wisconsin-0.4%
  8. 8.Vermont-0.4%
  9. 9.Indiana-0.4%
  10. 10.New Hampshire-0.4%

Nonfarm payroll employment, YoY · Smallest year-over-year rise (or largest decline) in nonfarm payroll employment.

i

Where is unemployment highest?

  1. 1.District of Columbia6.2%
  2. 2.California5.3%
  3. 3.Nevada5.3%
  4. 4.Delaware5.3%
  5. 5.Oregon5.2%
  6. 6.Washington5.2%
  7. 7.Illinois5.1%
  8. 8.Connecticut5.0%
  9. 9.Michigan5.0%
  10. 10.New Mexico4.9%

Unemployment rate, latest month · Highest current unemployment rate among the 44 covered states.

i

Where is unemployment lowest?

  1. 1.South Dakota2.2%
  2. 2.North Dakota2.4%
  3. 3.Hawaii2.5%
  4. 4.Vermont2.6%
  5. 5.Alabama2.8%
  6. 6.Nebraska3.0%
  7. 7.Maine3.1%
  8. 8.New Hampshire3.1%
  9. 9.Indiana3.2%
  10. 10.Iowa3.3%

Unemployment rate, latest month · Lowest current unemployment rate among the 44 covered states.

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Where are people moving to?

  1. 1.South Carolina+1.2%
  2. 2.Idaho+1.0%
  3. 3.North Carolina+0.8%
  4. 4.Delaware+0.6%
  5. 5.Tennessee+0.6%
  6. 6.Montana+0.6%
  7. 7.Maine+0.5%
  8. 8.Arkansas+0.5%
  9. 9.New Hampshire+0.5%
  10. 10.Nevada+0.5%

Net domestic migration as % of state population · Largest inflow relative to state size (Census PEP, July 2024 to July 2025). A rate so small states aren't drowned out by big ones.

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Where are people moving from?

  1. 1.New York-0.7%
  2. 2.Hawaii-0.6%
  3. 3.Alaska-0.6%
  4. 4.District of Columbia-0.6%
  5. 5.California-0.6%
  6. 6.Massachusetts-0.5%
  7. 7.New Jersey-0.4%
  8. 8.Illinois-0.3%
  9. 9.Louisiana-0.3%
  10. 10.Colorado-0.2%

Net domestic migration as % of state population · Largest outflow relative to state size. Negative values show net loss; ranked by rate, not raw headcount.

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Coverage · strongest economic activity first

Methodology

The Outlook is a composite of nine indicators per state: the Philadelphia Fed coincident activity index (12-month change), jobs year over year (BLS payrolls), unemployment vs. the U.S. (BLS), how long homes sit on the market (Redfin, YoY), net domestic migration as a share of population (Census vintage estimates), gas prices year to date (our Gas Prices section), consumer-price inflation (regional CPI), the homicide rate vs. the U.S. (our Crime section) and Grade 4 reading vs. the U.S. (our Education section).

Each bar is scaled against the most extreme state for that metric, so bars are comparable across states within a metric. The state tint blends the bars into one read. The Focus toggle weights current-level indicators, trend indicators or both. The grading toggle switches between Curve, which ranks states against each other, and Absolute, which colors each metric by its own good or bad direction.

Sources