New Jersey Outlook
Last 5 years of economic activity, labor-market, and population data. Last refreshed June 8, 2026.
Economic Activity Index
145.6
April 1, 2026 · Philadelphia Fed, indexed
Unemployment rate
4.8%
+0.5pp vs. U.S. 4.3% (April 1, 2026)
Nonfarm employment
4,385K
April 1, 2026 · BLS, thousands of jobs
Population growth
+0.44%
Year ending July 1, 2025 · Census PEP
Economic activity & jobs
Where the state's labor market and overall economic activity stand vs. the trend.
Economic Activity Index
A composite of nonfarm payrolls, average hours, unemployment and inflation-adjusted wages. Built and maintained by the Philadelphia Fed. Indexed so that July 1992 = 100.
Source: FRED · Latest: April 1, 2026 · Series NJPHCI
Initial unemployment claims
Weekly initial unemployment-insurance filings. A true leading indicator: rising claims signal labor-market weakness ahead.
Source: FRED · Latest: May 23, 2026 · Series NJICLAIMS
Unemployment rate
State unemployment rate from BLS Current Population Survey.
Source: FRED · Latest: April 1, 2026 · Series NJUR
Nonfarm payroll employment (YoY)
Year-over-year percent change in total nonfarm payroll employment.
Source: FRED · Latest: April 1, 2026 · Series NJNA-yoy
Home selling time on market (YoY)
Year-over-year change in median days a listing waits before going under contract. Statewide. A leading indicator: rising DOM signals buyer cooling before prices reflect it.
Source: Redfin Data Center · Latest: May 1, 2026 · Series redfin-state-days-on-market-New Jersey-yoy
Retail gasoline (weekly)
State-specific weekly retail regular gasoline price from EIA.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration · Latest: June 8, 2026 · Series eia-gas-NJ
Population & migration
Annual estimates from the Census Population Estimates Program (vintage 2025). Net domestic migration captures people moving between U.S. states; net international migration captures immigration. Together with births and deaths they explain the full population change.
Net domestic migration
People moving in from other states minus those moving out, per year.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program · Latest: July 1, 2025 · Series census-domestic-migration-nj
Net international migration
People moving in from other countries minus those moving out, per year.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program · Latest: July 1, 2025 · Series census-international-migration-nj
Population (total)
State resident population estimate (July 1). The y-axis range is tight; small changes look proportionally larger.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program · Latest: July 1, 2025 · Series census-pep-population
Most-recent net domestic migration of -37,428 people equals -0.39% of the state's total population — the figure used for the map's domestic-migration bar.
Methodology
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia maintains the Coincident Economic Activity Index for each U.S. state. The Phila Fed also previously published a State Leading Index, but discontinued the series in February 2020; it has not been updated since. Initial unemployment claims serves here as the true forward-looking signal because it leads the unemployment rate and payroll employment by several weeks.
Unemployment rate and nonfarm payroll employment come from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, distributed via FRED.
Population and migration estimates come from the U.S. Census Population Estimates Program (vintage 2025), which models annual state-level resident population by combining births, deaths, and net migration (domestic and international). The latest vintage covers periods ending July 1, 2025.
The data window is the last 5 years. Refresh is manual: a script in the repo pulls each source and commits the resulting JSON. State-level coverage matches the Home Sales section (44 states; AK, DE, DC, ND, SD, VT, WY excluded).
Sources
- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia — State Indexes — Coincident Activity Index methodology.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Local Area Unemployment Statistics — Unemployment rate and payroll employment.
- U.S. Department of Labor — Initial Claims — Weekly state unemployment insurance claims.
- U.S. Census Bureau — Population Estimates Program (vintage 2025) — Annual state population and migration.
- FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data — Distribution platform for all FRED-sourced series above.